Wired’s predictions for 2007 read more like a nerd’s wish list (BitTorrent on TiVo, HD-DVD wins, no more dads, life on Mars, etc.) than an attempt at informed sooth-saying, but still, I had to comment on this one:
Print to Web
A major newspaper gives up printing on paper to publish exclusively online.
Ain’t happening. There’s still too much revenue tied up in print and not enough online. A major newspaper — I’m taking this to mean a major metro — couldn’t support it’s current news operation with a digital-only strategy. Not now. Not yet. Not for a couple to a few years. The only way I see a big city paper shutting down its presses is if it’s a weak sister in a JOA and is largely subsidized by its corporate parent as an online-only experiment (something I’ve long thought Scripps should do with the Cincinnati Post (I believe that JOA was slated to end, but I’m not sure of the current status)).
Here’s when newspapers will stop rolling presses: When digital delivery has become so much more efficient that the cost savings will entice publishers to essentially force subscribers to give up print. Revenue will have to get better of course, but what I’m saying is that the killer of print won’t be so much lost revenue or increased revenue opportunity, but cost savings — eliminate the press, the press men, the trucks, the drivers, the newsracks … all of those polluting, environmentally wasteful inefficiencies of print delivery. Some day, that will very much tempt publishers. But we’re still years away from that … say two to five years. But when mobile devices get better, or digital ink arrives, or households become widely wired at 10mb, then publishers might have the efficiencies needed to kill print.
I disagree. Newspapers can go online-only and pay the bills.
[…] Howard Owens doesn’t think so: “Ain’t happening. There’s still too much revenue tied up in print and not enough online. A major newspaper — I’m taking this to mean a major metro — couldn’t support it’s current news operation with a digital-only strategy. Not now. Not yet. Not for a couple to a few years.“ […]
I agree with you here, but think the prospects for college media going online-only are greater in the short term.
Howard,
readership is high on many college campuses, but that is also a function of the fact that the papers are free to readers, based on a myriad of funding formulas. Some papers are entirely self-supporting with ad revenues. Others have a mix of ad revenue and student fee support, and some are almost entirely supported through student fees or other budget lines.
Also, it’s incredibly difficult to get any real sense of “readership” when nobody is subscribing. The latest survey that I saw was that over 70 percent had “read” the newspaper for at least 10 minutes at some time during the past five weeks. To me, that’s an incredibly wide definition of “readership.”
I contend that the papers who might consider online-only are papers that get a majority of their funds from student service fees with almost no ad revenue. At some point, someone is going to start asking why they are subsidizing printing the paper when they could put it online for a considerable savings.
Of course, the readership question is going to be a challenge for anyone who attempts to go online only. I don’t think it’s an insurmountable challenge, but it will require innovative solutions.
But absent the financial pressures of mainline media, some college media outlets will find it a viable option.
[…] In various year-end prognostications, some have been predicting that a major paper will cease publication and shift to the internet this year: see Scott Karp and Wired. Howard Owens disagrees and so do I. It will come, but not yet, for there is still profit to be made in print and sluggish advertisers still aren’t ready to support the new medium — even if that’s where their customers are — and shut-down costs remain high. I think that within, say, five years, we could see a paper make a strategic move entirely online. But if such a shift comes in the meantime, I think it will be the result of bankruptcy, not strategy: Just as some magazines have folded but supposedly lived on online, so will we see this as a last-ditch effort to keep a brand and business alive. […]
[…] Jarvis and another online news-centered blogger I read, Howard Owens, disagree with the prognosticators. They feel that there is still too much revenue tied up in print circulation and that it will take some time, possibly a few years yet, for many publishers to go Web only. […]
[…] UPDATE: Follow the discussion for big media via Howard Owens, Lucas Grindley, and John Robinson, and then follow a related college media discussions via Ryan Sholin and Rich Cameron. I specifically want you to read Sholin and Cameron, as they hit on some of the other characteristics of the college media mix that deserve consideration. […]
Howard, I posted this on Lucas’ site but wanted to post it here too, as I think this is a more valid and a further take on the discussion:
“I wonder if this discussion would hold true for major metropolitan newspapers that have an online and a printe version. We would have to look at the operating costs and revenues of the online portion of the business. For example, does anyone know what the budget is of a major publication for its online portion. How much do they spend on not only building and maintaining the website but also advertising for it. Also how much ad revenue do they get from it?”
[…] To quote myself: Here’s when newspapers will stop rolling presses: When digital delivery has become so much more efficient that the cost savings will entice publishers to essentially force subscribers to give up print. Revenue will have to get better of course, but what I’m saying is that the killer of print won’t be so much lost revenue or increased revenue opportunity, but cost savings — eliminate the press, the press men, the trucks, the drivers, the newsracks … all of those polluting, environmentally wasteful inefficiencies of print delivery. Some day, that will very much tempt publishers. But we’re still years away from that … say two to five years. But when mobile devices get better, or digital ink arrives, or households become widely wired at 10mb, then publishers might have the efficiencies needed to kill print. Share and Enjoy:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. […]
[…] I was skeptical. Jeff Javis backed me up. […]